255 newly minted Cisco CCIEs are projected for 2010
Fri, 6/4/10 - 11:49pm Add your comment
Dual CCIE #18532 R&S/Security - George Morton, a rabid aficionado of CCIE statistics and calculations, is projecting 255 newly minted Cisco CCIEs for 2010.
According to Morton's calculation, 2010 will see approximately 2,595 fewer newly minted CCIEs than 2009.
Why?
Well, below you can see Morton's newly minted CCIE calculations over the past 10-years and they certainly help tell the story.
Morton pontificates, "Above, you can see the first peak was in 2002, then again in 2008-2009 when it appeared everyone was becoming a new CCIE. However fortunately for CCIEs, over the past year the numbers have been falling month after month, and the very last CCIE count comparison (March 2010 to April 2010) shows the count falling an unprecedented -21.
"The 10 year count was built around the month of August, which was the month I passed the CCIE lab exam. Originally, I was interested in knowing the size of the market and the potential impact that an ever expanding CCIE count might have on my future income."
Morton then concluded, "Below, the 10-year numbers reflect each August and show the trend going forward. I'm projecting CCIE growth year-over-year for 2010 at 255 new CCIEs, which works-out to a forecast of 1 newly minted CCIE per business day for 2010."
By Chosen_OnE on Saturday, June 05, 2010 at 15:26:54
Brad and George are dead on. The CCIE program is completely messed up and attempting to hide these numbers won't help. The forums are filled with frustrated CCIE candidates. Is John Chambers clueless to these issues? Lora O'Haver (or whoever is running the CCIE program) should either get these issues fixed or pack her bags. I'm not saying Cisco needs to start handing out CCIEs, but you can't deny the stats. Hell, wasn't the so called 360 Program supposed to resolve this?
Here's a grade for the CCIE program, FAIL, and don't bother asking for a re-grade, because you weren't even close. SLAP!!!
CCIEs = Increased sales and product awareness ($$$$)
By Darby Weaver on Sunday, June 06, 2010 at 04:27:00
Let's see... decreasing numbers... dumps are not much help... even group discussions have dropped...
There are a few reasons:
MPLS - It's not that bad but the CCIE RS did not have it previously and quite frankly, I think is scares the hell out of campus and smaller enterprise engineers.
Troubleshooting a new... foreign technology - like MPLS - must be interesting. I've already discussed what possible issues could be as they might relate to the CCIE Lab.
Note: Those taking the lab are not deterred... those thinking of starting the CCIE program likely are.
CCIE training companies are suffering like hell... some have let go of top talent - most notably in the Routing and Switching arena. Other areas seem "safe" but who can say for sure.
CCIE training companies are dropping classes - lack of interest.
Salaries are about the same - no major incentives. The dot com bubble has burst.
The Cisco 360 - I guess a lot of people have the opinion that it was supposed to prepare students 100% for the CCIE RS Lab in 6 to 12 months... here we are 2 years later... how many students have actually passed yet?
Not counting ole Narbik Kocharins (he still teaches his own courseware and does not use those slides - a trademark of his). Narbik did report 6 of 7 of students reportedly went to the CCIE Lab v4.0 and passed on the first attempt. He later said 7 had passed... so I guess the straggler picked up a bit.
Economy? Well the CCIE is not a cheap investment. Figure about $30,000.00 on average and at least 1-2+ years of study (10 years is also not unheard of among working professionals). However, I think most people seeking a CCIE are more likely self-starters rather than spoon-fed types waiting on the corporate "bailout" to pay for classes, materials, and lab fees. Cisco offers 3 free lab attempts to its engineers. Cisco Partners offer 2-3 free attempts. Self-payers pay through the nose. Unfortunately, there are no unemployment plans that pay for the CCIE. Cisco does not offer scholarships either (unless you work for Cisco as mentioned above).
Well I started the trend of what I called the Anti-CCIE... that individual who has several CCxP certifications and earns $100,000.00+++ but no CCIE. Well others at Cisco Press (some CCIE's) agreed with me and I think CCIE candidates started putting two and two together... return on investment.
The $1,000.00 CCIE Lab Announcement - has unofficially been denied and even denounced as a rumor. Despite 2 reported Cisco folks saying otherwise. I guess Cisco does not want people to drop dates prior to the official announcement at Cisco Live this year. It is reasonable but if people have already paid, they are generally booked for the lab. Do or Die! Anyway - I took heat for mentioning it publicly. I actually think it will help regenerate interest into the CCIE Program and develop an interest in people who currently may be on the edge of the fence and thinking about the CCIE Lab... after all it is a profit center.
It appears the Vue Labs went bust and that took some steam out of the labs.
CCIE SP Operations does not seem to have the "allure" of the CCIE SP to some and is already being looked down on as a sub-par certification.
Change - I've read a lot of people who are studying for the CCIE Lab are just not happy with the amount of change and its frequency. 6 months notice - the established norm has been thrown to the curve this past year or two...
I am a RS CCIE from China, also, I send an email to Cisco, hope Cisco can issue the CCIE global statistical page in their web page soon. About this thing I am very worry that Cisco will give up the CCIE certified in the future, because the number of CCIE are growth with a high speed so Cisco failed to control it that is why Cisco hide the CCIE statistical page I think, do you think it is a truth? What about you think can you share with me your opinion? Please send email for me and also we can chat for this thing over the MSN.
Personally, I don't think Cisco will end its CCIE certifications.
However, I do believe that Cisco all by itself (and in an amazingly short time-span to boot) has managed to inflict major damage upon its highly prestigious CCIE program.
Also, I do know for a fact that Dual CCIE George Morton's calcutions on Cisco's CCIE statistics were being followed by very influential Wall Street analysts who cover Cisco's stock for investors.
Concluding, it's my opinion that after Wall Street analysts took a keen interest in the decline of Cisco's CCIE R&S count, they may have begun to ask questions that were probably too embarrassing for Cisco's top executives to answer and perhaps that's why Cisco made its worldwide CCIE count web page vanish!
Based on difference of CCIE personal numbers I've counted that less than 2% of RS v4 candidates passed exams since new version launch. Actually about 35-40 persons worldwide passed RS during April-May 2010 period. So, your expectations for 250 people this year seems to be correct. I think that it is major fail of program developers and Cisco wants to hide this fail.
A very interesting thread is developing. The comments about CCIE-SP were interesting and the idea that the test price might drop to $1,000 was also interesting.
One of the key things that I think has happened to Cisco is the management of the company by marketing questionnaires. If you don't know the right questions how can you make the right decisions? How many CCIEs does Lora O'Haver have as direct reports? For that matter how many on her staff have a CCNA? The CCIE program is starting to show the wear and tear of poor management.
What needs to change in my mind includes:
The CCIE program was to increase sales with technical support to clients at the highest levels.
This creates pre-sales CCIEs with an extensive understanding of how to tie things together.
Post-sales CCIEs with an extensive knowledge to integrate and manage the networks.
Cisco spends an extensive amount of money and resources on the VAR program and indirectly supporting the CCIEs.
What Cisco does not do is court the CCIEs themselves.
What Cisco should do for the CCIE Program is reach out to the existing CCIEs with a direct program offering:
Equipment
Software
Reading material
Higher level support
CCIE meetings that go beyond Networkers, I have never even been, cost too much, no perceived value.
The CCIE program should do more for the CCIE helping them maintain their certification as well as help with the expansion of the program.
Granted cisco is changing and they need to, and maybe the CCIE program is over as a key push for Cisco's product lines, but until Cisco can develop these new "iPad type markets," the CCIE program needs to be changed if the numbers are to climb again.
