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Cisco's Q3'FY12 data center revenue sequentially declined

Cisco's highly touted UCS products appear to have developed a "revenue pattern" over the past 2 fiscal years by sequentially declining during the 3rd quarter.

Wed, 5/9/12 - 11:59pm    View comments

CiscoJohn Chambers Cisco CEO John Chambers bragged today during Cisco's Q3'FY12 earnings conference call:

"The acceleration of the data center and specifically the UCS business, years ahead of our competition, is just one example where we grew Q3 revenue over 50% -- 57% year-over-year for the UCS business, while each of our top 2 data center competitors had flat or negative growth in their service business in the most recent quarter."

View Cisco's Q3'FY12 earnings conference call transcript, slide presentation and press release.

Meanwhile as it did during Q3'FY11, Cisco's Q3'FY12 data center revenues sequentially declined:

Cisco's sequential quarterly operating cash flow declines (highlighted in yellow)

Millions Q1'FY10 Q2'FY10 Q3'FY10 Q4'FY10 Q1'FY11 Q2'FY11 Q3'FY11 Q4'FY11 Q1'FY12 Q2'FY12 Q3'FY12
OCF $1,488 $2,486 $2,967 $3,232 $1,667 $2,609 $2,979 $2,824 $2,333 $3,101 $2,969

Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission


Cisco's sequential quarterly gross margin (GM) declines (highlighted in yellow)

  Q1'FY10 Q2'FY10 Q3'FY10 Q4'FY10 Q1'FY11 Q2'FY11 Q3'FY11 Q4'FY11 Q1'FY12 Q2'FY12 Q3'FY12
Product 65.47% 64.70% 64.31% 62.43% 62.65% 58.93% 60.35% 59.88% 60.19% 59.96% 60.87%
Service 64.47% 63.67% 62.31% 63.80% 63.60% 64.80% 64.95% 66.79% 65.14% 66.29% 65.51%
GM 65.26% 64.51% 63.94% 62.68% 62.83% 60.16% 61.28% 61.28% 61.21% 61.29% 61.86%

Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission


Cisco's sequential quarterly sales declines (highlighted in yellow)

Cisco's Sales
(in millions)
Q1'FY10 Q2'FY10 Q3'FY10 Q4'FY10 Q1'FY11 Q2'FY11 Q3'FY11 Q4'FY11 Q1'FY12 Q2'FY12 Q3'FY12
Switching $2,968 $3,555 $3,814 $3,737 $3,689 $3,341 $3,480 $3,620 $3,675 $3,607 $3,644
NGN Routing 1,901 1,873 2,019 2,075 2,177 1,919 2,150 2,018 2,108 2,077 $2,143
Collaboration 658 666 706 951 977 952 1,008 1,076 1,093 1,047 1,007
SP Video 682 844 887 881 778 825 898 982 879 1,015 1,002
Wireless 309 253 269 303 334 335 353 405 362 418 425
Security 296 291 300 415 290 270 316 324 320 334 345
Data Center 19 25 53 99 125 177 173 219 259 333 291
Other 367 469 388 347 330 417 291 277 256 287 249
Services 1,821 1,839 1,932 2,028 2,050 2,171 2,197 2,274 2,304 2,409 2,482
TOTAL $9,021 $9,815 $10,368 $10,836 $10,750 $10,407 $10,866 $11,195 $11,256 $11,527 $11,588

Source: Cisco Systems

Tavis McCourtRaymond JamesWith regard to Cisco's 2nd consecutive quarterly decline in collaboration sales, Tavis McCourt - Managing Director of Equity Research for Raymond James states:

"We believe that the video conferencing equipment industry likely declined in 1Q12 for the first time since 2009, representing a rapid deceleration from the 20-30% y/y growth as recently as 1H11.

"We believe market shares have remained relatively stable over the last few quarters if one backs out Polycom's HP purchase. In terms of takeaways, it is clear that recent difficulties that Polycom and [privately held] LifeSize have had are not related to market share losses, but are rather due to a rapid change in industry growth trends. We believe the most likely culprits are a sudden weakening in Europe, longer sales cycles related to new cloud-based deployment options and desktop video options, and a likely maturing of the room-based endpoint market in the developed world."

Specifically to Cisco, McCort estimates Cisco's TelePresence products saw a 5% revenue decline, year over year:

Video Conferencing Industry Revenue Growth Units - Y/Y%

Mark SueRBC Capital MarketsInterestingly in his April 19th research note to your truly, RBC Capital Markets Managing Director - Mark Sue stated Polycom's weakness is partially due to a:

"Market transition from point products to packaged solutions."

According to Cisco's Q3'FY12 collaboration sales results (which includes TelePresence), it certainly appears that Cisco's TelePresence products are experiencing the same weakness.

Related stories:

For a fee, it appears Cisco's top executives will sign autographs and make an appearance

5 Reasons Cisco And Polycom Are In Trouble In Telepresence

Silver Peak Systems appears to be the new culprit in Cisco's WAN optimization controllers (WOCs) market share loss

Cisco's losing market share in 3 major data center segments
 


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